Are books becoming obsolete? It sounds like a stupid question to ask Michael Hyatt (or IVP or Nav or any other press in the CBA), but I’m beginning to wonder.
Consider my six-year-old daughter.
We read to her daily, and she is now reading chapter books on her own. Which means she loves books—physical books that she can hold in her hand. But she also reads on-line. She enjoys the web books on Nickelodeon and Disney sites and often reads them to her little brother. I can already tell that she will not have the aversion to screen reading that most adults seem to have.
My friend is an early adopter. She just bought the Sony Reader. This is from their site: “Books are just the beginning for the Sony Reader. It also displays Adobe PDFs, personal documents, blogs, newsfeeds, and JPEGs with the same amazing readability, so you can take your favorite blogs and online newspapers with you.”
Granted, the Sony Reader is nascent technology. And I don’t think books are going to die. The theater never did. But TV and movies certainly ate into its market share. iTunes and Rhapsody are wrecking similar havoc in the recording industry. Eventually, something like the Sony Reader is going to take off. I’m guessing it will be in 10-20 years when the first Internet kids get some real buying power. It could be sooner.
When books become print on demand with no printing costs, any blogger will be able to compile material and publish it to readers as easily as podcasters publish their material to someone’s MP3 player. (It’s the long tail of digital archives applied to publishing.) Most of these “blogger books” will be terrible, no doubt. But some will be good. And a good number of the good ones will be free or very cheap.
That means that books from traditional publishers and content from independent bloggers and self-publishers will be available to readers on the same device in direct competition with each other.
Which leads me to three questions:
- Do publishers anticipate real competition with free content?
- If so, what can they do to stay competitive?
- If this is just some wacky sci-fi delusion, tell me why I’m wrong.
(Ok, that last one is an implied question, but still.)Â
Of course, they may not be in direct competition. It may be that people start reading books and blogs. It may be that the long tail helps blogs and print on demand books find audiences that they never would have found otherwise.
That scenario would be like the grocery store florist phenomenon. When grocery stores started selling flowers, you might expect that florists saw a sharp decline in sales. I have heard that the opposite is true. (But I can’t remember where I read this and I don’t have time to verify it right now.) Independent florists found that grocery stores actually raised public awareness of flowers again. While people did purchase flowers from grocery stores, consumers knew that the best flowers came from the experts—independent florists. The grocery store florists created demand for cheaper flowers, but also reminded folks to seek out quality flowers from independent florists.
This could happen for the publishers too. Blogs create demand for a new kind of print content that doesn’t compete with books. Instead, blogs help more people find the joy of reading. These people continue to read blogs, but they always know that the best content comes from the experts—the professional publishers.
Note to my regular readers, all three of you: I’m experimenting with the most efficient way to post content here. I’ve decided to post three times per week: one macro publishing post (like this), one micro publishing post (sentence tips), and one creative post (poetry, prose, or drama by myself and others).Â
{ 25 comments }
Thanks for the heads-up on the posting.(If you didn’t count me as a regular-do
I don’t think too many things will be free-not in this money-hungry world. The times are changing, though.
As someone about to get a first book published, I understand that I’m not really going to make any money off of this thing. Mostly I just want to be in print. But I do think that even for people like me who expect to be starving artists and coffee-shop employees for the rest of our days, there’s a sort of appeal to the idea that some sort of money is going to be changing hands somewhere in order for people to read our words. So how long will writers be content to have the world read their stuff completely for free?
Hi Mark
I don’t share your worries, nor do I see your vision of Sci-Fi. I think both will stay/develop.
POD is getting cheaper and easily available for everyone who thinks he/she’s got a story to publish (bloggers and non-bloggers), I’ve done my business novel with POD and it didn’ cost me that much.
So there will be more competition among ‘real hardcopy publications, but on the same time PC or screen reading will become more popular, especially when simple ‘reading’tools are getting cheaper also.
But….
can you scurl-up in your favourite chair with your favourite story on a digital reader? I couldn’t.
Can you give a disk containing a story for a digital reader as a present to someone, I wouldn’t do that, it has no ‘body’ (plus you can’t write a special message in the book for the receiver from the giver)
Just my 2p on this.
Mark, I’m just over 50 so my words here probably shouldn’t count. But I do prefer books. Yet I love the access to good material that computers afford to us. So now I really wouldn’t want to do without either. Plus I like the live interaction with people that blogging brings.
Isn’t it true that precious few authors, who have books published, can make a living off their work? I wonder what percentage can, and what markets are the best for this.
Dear Ted (sorry to interfere Mark) your
“I’m just over 50 so my words here probably shouldn’t count.”
makes me feel soooo old (and I’m just 45).
You’re as young or as old as you feel/do/act and besides that, for months now my ‘greatest’ fan is an 60 year old accountant who loves reading adn writing (still have to persuade him to start a blog, his wise words would find a large following straight away).
Everybody counts, age doesn’t!
I don’t think it’s a whacky sci-fi delusion. Technology is both great and scary b/c of the things you bring up.
This is just my opinion; but, I have a feeling your florist-phenomena is correct – for certain sectors. Whether traditional publishing will survive or not, I don’t know. I guess it depends on adaptability – for example, newspapers, someone wrote a book about them and how they’re slowly disappearing called The Vanishing Newspaper.
All these things are happening now, and it’s really interesting to be here when it does – even though I’m not really abreast on everything that is going on. I suppose it’s a matter that relies on both parties – a supplier’s adaptability and knowledge about being online, the power of interactive online communities/blogs and the ability to take full advantage of it – and a customer’s sentimentality toward physical things. When it comes to music, I’m always going to choose a CD with a cool little booklet that I can look through as opposed to buying little information packets of music floating around online.
On the subject, I’m more worried about the social effects of all this technology. It’s great having everything you need streaming out of your computer, but I think our ability to interact face to face with people is slowly being compromised and neatly boxed away in a room, on a chair, and in front of a lap top.
Karin H hit the nail on the head, at least for me. Reading for me is often about enjoyment and the whole idea of getting cozy with a book. Even my laptop doesn’t cut it for cozy. Plus a book can go to the beach or in the tub (hey, it’s worth the small risk) – no way I’d do that with my laptop for some free content.
Eve, it doesn’t make sense that people would give away content, but they seem to do it. Wikipedia is the best example I know.
Folksonomy and user generated content is counter-intuitive, but so many people want to be heard that they shout their barbaric yawps from the rooftop of the world with no direct expectation of payment.
Jenn, congratulations on your upcoming publication! That is very exciting. I’ve been so busy at work that I haven’t been able to make the rounds on everyone’s blog lately.
I agree with you completely. I’d rather not give my work away for free. But I also suspect the interet is so big there will always be some people willing to give their content away. And at least a few of those people will have good content.
Karin H., I was with you on this just a few months ago. But I’ve been thinking. Certainly, no one curls up with their laptops to read. No one sits down with a desktop computer to take in Shakespeare of Stephen King or even the longer New York Times articles. (I print anything longer than one screen myself.)
On the other hand, the Sony Reader is something you can curl up with. I wouldn’t, but eventually I suspect people will be comfortable with the idea.
I’ve already seen teenagers curling up with a cell phone to read their textmessages.
For now, I can’t imagine a process that allows me to take in as much visual information as I can in a physical book. That’s why I don’t think books will disappear.
However, I already use my Palm to do about 50% of my Bible reading. While I can’t flip through whole books as easily, I can search and find with amazing precision.
Perhaps all of this will apply more to nonfiction than fiction.
Ted, excellent point that most authors aren’t making a living from their work.
All of the authors I know have a day job–teaching college usually.
And the fact that you are over fifty just gives you the opportunity to turn your experiences into wisdom! (Which you do on your blog.) I agree with Karin H. that you shouldn’t apologize for your age.
It is an important thing to keep in mind in this case though. Neither you nor I grew up with hypertexts or internet or screen reading habits.
I suspect that a lot of our nostalgia for wanting to curl up with books will not be as strong for the kids who grow up with cell phones and ereaders and internet and books. They’ll still like books, but not so much that the other ways of reading won’t at least compete with the books directly.
And no matter how we are reading, we only have so much time to do it. Any time I spend reading on the computer may be time I don’t spend reading a book. (Depending on where all of this falls in comparison to the grocery store florist analogy.)
Ally, it’s so good to hear from you! And what a great comment.
You wrote, “When it comes to music, I’m always going to choose a CD with a cool little booklet that I can look through as opposed to buying little information packets of music floating around online.”
Good point. I always buy physical CDs for exactly that reason. I like the artwork and liner notes. And a lot of musicians (Sufjan Stevens comes to mind) are now making their liner notes a big part of the reason you purchase the CD. In my opinion.
But the internet has definitely hurt the music industry. Not because people purchase music via download. But because people steal music via download.
If/when digital reading comes of age, what will stop people from pirating the new Stephen King book or the new Harry Potter?
As for the fear that technology will isolate us, I share that fear. But I don’t blame technology. At its best technology builds relationships where none were before. That’s how I can sit in Kerrville, Texas, and have an active friendship with people in Chicago and New York and California and Lubbock…
AMM, I agree with you completely. I could never take a laptop on the beach–I don’t care what those stupid ads say. If I’m on the beach, I want a book. Or more likely, nothing at all. Just let me be on the beach!
But gradually, I think digital reading will be more portable. Something like the iPod will come along and revolutionize the way people access books.
The iPod hasn’t replaced CD players, but it is certainly eating into their market share. (Anyone purchased a Walkman lately?)
The iReader or Sony Reader or whatever digital reading device emerges will do the same to books. And my question for publishers and writers remains–what are we doing to plan for that day when it comes in the next decade or two?
Mark
The hardest thing to change in the buying/selling process is the user behavior. In other words, you can change the packaging, the pricing, even the product but if you’re selling something that requires a change in human behavior, it’s a difficult sell. If a change is afoot, then it’s a telling sign.
I think for many of us that are older than 30 (for the record, I’m a lot older than 30) , there is no substitute for the physical hardcopy book. Old habits are hard to break. However, increasingly I get my news, and a lot of information online. It’s become a secondary source for information. I find my behavior changing.
For those who literally grew up in the Internet age – (Bill Gates called the Digital Generation everyone born 1984 and later), the answer may be different. For them, it may online first and physical, printed content second. They’ve grown up with portable devices – iPods, Nintendo Gameboys, etc… If that’s true, it may spell trouble for the traditional publishers.
It’ll be interesting to hear what Michael Hyatt has to say
Okay, now. There is free content over on my blog. Just wanted to mention that (ahem… you are missed!)
Did I mention you are missed?
Oh, I meant to say, “I miss you,” but the passive construction seemed a better choice and also seemed to be a chance to elicit some advice on sentence construction.
L.L., lately I’ve missed myself! I promise to drop by Seedlings today to say hi. I already read your recent stuff, and I’m thinking about it.
As for the passive construction. I’m not really a stickler about that. Especially in a blog comment. However, passive is generally a weak sentence construction that allows the speaker to hedge.
I think you were intending to hedge a little bit in the way you put your guilt trip on me. So that means the syntax you chose was probably appropriate!
Oh, no, you misinterpret. I would never hedge in a guilt trip! Guilt, guilt!
I hedged in saying “I.” You know, in admitting that you were not simply missed by the cyberblob. But by a very specific blob of humanity on the East Coast.
Agreed on the “technology at its best” thing. I tend to forget the positive sometimes :\
As far as stealing and pirating.. I don’t know a lot about programs that support BitTorrent or even how to use them (it must be pretty darn easy – but I don’t ever plan on trying). But, there’s so much controversy around this stuff and the RIAA… I assume there will be some kind of solution in the future? I don’t know. That’s probably optimistic.
Anyway, if you like Sufjan you might want to check out Beirut, relatively new band.
Marcus,
I’m not sure how else to leave a note that’s off topic, so I’m posting it here. I read this on your bio:”If you like what I’m saying here and really think I may be able to help you with your manuscript, I don’t mind taking a look at it and offering some free tips.”
I recently got a critique that really hurt and would appreciate your feedback on my writing-I judge you to be a fair guy. I think my email is accessible to you here-if not, swing by my blog and let me know.
Thanks,
Eve
Eve, thanks for the comment here. I need to add a “contact me” page to the site. As soon as life slows down… right…
Ally, Beirut sounds cool. I don’t think of you as a negative person at all–you just have really high standards and you are far from naive about jumping on bandwagons. Neither of those things are bad. : )
I am new and am coming into this discussion late, but did anyone really reply to your question, “How Will Publishers Compete with FREE Content?”
It is an important question, but perhaps not for the obvious reason. Christian publishers will not be competitive in the future, with the myriad devices available, simply because it is not competitive now, at least not in a proactive marketing sense.
Books have been getting increasingly less floor space in Christian bookstores, while bric-a-brac increases. Bookstores do little local advertising, as a rule, and since they are just selling books on consignment anyway, they would rather return them instead of making any serious attempt to sell them.
Books may die, not because they are not beloved, but because the means of distribution has become antiquated. People will migrate to other devices for that reason in my view.
Donald, thanks so much for dropping by and commenting.
The increase in bric-a-brac is just getting worse. Take CBA’s International Christian Trade Show. It used to be primarily a publishing event. Authors would showcase new books. Presses would showcase new authors. Last year more than half of the trade show was what I think of as “Jesus Junk.” Smiley Jesus erasers. Stuffed Jesus dolls. Jesus video games. Jesus charm bracelets. A whole lotta Jesus for sale. Most of it cheap.
But that’s a tangent. I like what you said about “the means of distribution has become antiquated.” I think that is absolutely right.
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